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Oil prices rebounded on Thursday, October 5, 2006 on news that OPEC reduction of 1 million barrels per day production, with immediate effect. In Saudi Arabia, the largest oil producer in OPEC will cut production of 300,000 barrels per day. "This reduction in production to support oil prices? I hope that members of OPEC.

In the short to medium term, I think it's a futile effort. To begin, after hurricane season almost harmless in summer, winter is expected to be closer this year. Consequently, energy consumption should at least be a burden.

Second, inventories of crude to U.S. supplies of distillates rose 3.3 million barrels last week. That signals the accumulation of stocks which is bearish for oil prices in the future. In addition, higher oil prices last year was accompanied by increased inventory, which is disconcerting. Therefore, it is time that the drop in oil prices, regardless the inventory figures. That said, there will be plenty of stock declines to help support oil prices.

Thirdly, the increase oil prices has triggered a new oil exploration that would otherwise not be funded. This project will be profitable in five to ten years. It is expected that the first batch of this new project will connect the next year or two. To recover the huge investment costs will be best for this new field production oil to maintain oil production. This will put pressure on oil prices even more.

Fourth, the interest rate federal funds is 5.25% against 1.00% for several years. This speculation down that we believe has greatly contributed to the emergence futures oil. When you can get 5.25% for doing nothing would be willing to borrow huge and not just their money bank. In addition, the effect of changing interest rates sit 9 to 12 months in advance. The Federal Reserve began to raise the rate the Fed in 2004 June, 30 so far. Therefore, the effect of the rate of 5.25% interest still be felt around one year from now.

Fifth, the housing market in the United States has declined considerably. Homebuilders had reported lower profit expectations amid the severe downturn in some regions. There are some bold predictions provides a double-digit decline in home prices until 2009, however, even the most optimistic forecasts still expect a slight decline housing prices. This is a picture of a slowing economy will reduce demand for oil.

Sixth, natural gas off by hedge fund Amaranth, showed how dangerous to speculate on the market for commodities. This speculation for paris on oil, natural gas for some time. We believe that the speculative paris helped to support oil prices in the recent past. In addition, the Amaranth blow shows clearly that the price of commodities has a number of speculative excesses that could explode at any time.

Seventh, the price natural gas and other energy sources has declined significantly. Energy prices generally go hand in hand. If gas prices Natural dropped over 60%, while oil prices dropped to only 25%, which gives us two possibilities. If natural gas prices will increase while as oil remains constant or natural gas prices remain stable, while oil prices fall. With the action by OPEC to cut production immediately hurry, we believe the latter.

Eighth, the technology has helped companies find more and more intelligent on-site oil. On September 5, 2006, Chevron announced that it has discovered oil in the deepwater Gulf, which boost oil reserves in the U.S. 50%. Yes, you read correctly. 50% more. While the need billions of dollars to extract the oil and distribute it, shows that high oil prices will stimulate more exploration and drilling depths. Consequently, oil prices can not increase indefinitely.

Ninth, members of OPEC is dependent on oil than we are with our SUV. They need the oil money. Who will oversee that members of OPEC meet reallly production cut? In the past, some OPEC members "cheat" by overproduction and sell on the black market. While the price has dropped over the last two months, the price of oil is still historically high.

Tenth, blaming high oil prices is China, where oil has spit in their rapid economic growth. This may be true, but the economy of China has increased as double digits each year before the oil prices this high. We believe that the recent surge in commodities has nothing to do with China organize Olympic Games in 2008. Infrastructure built before the game and 2007 approaches, I think the construction is almost complete and the demand for raw materials weaken over the next year, including oil.

In the long term, as in the oil supply is limited, its price should increase. However, in the short and medium term, oil prices may have had a break due to the ten reasons above. All these forces has made it extremely difficult for us to be bullish on oil, at least for the next twelve months.

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